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CAMBRIDGE September 20, 2010 - The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met yesterday by conference call. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in December 2007 and the beginning of an expansion.At its meeting, the committee determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U. The recession lasted 18 months, which makes it the longest of any recession since World War II.Apart from a random statistical discrepancy, real GDI satisfies that equality while real personal income does not.

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Further, macroeconomic indicators are subject to substantial revisions and measurement error.

For these reasons, the committee refers to a variety of monthly indicators to choose the months of peaks and troughs.

Previously the longest postwar recessions were those of 1973--82, both of which lasted 16 months.

In determining that a trough occurred in June 2009, the committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity.

The committee concluded that strong growth in both real GDP and real GDI in the fourth quarter of 2009 ruled out the possibility that the trough occurred later than the third quarter.

The committee designated June as the month of the trough based on several monthly indicators.The committee places less emphasis on monthly data series for industrial production and manufacturing-trade sales, because these refer to particular sectors of the economy.Movements in these series can provide useful additional information when the broader measures are ambiguous about the date of the monthly peak or trough.Real GDP reached its low point in the second quarter of 2009, while the value of real GDI was essentially identical in the second and third quarters of 2009.The average of real GDP and real GDI reached its low point in the second quarter of 2009.In particular, in 2001-03, the trough in payroll employment occurred 21 months after the NBER trough date.

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